The UK may be one of Europe’s most sceptical countries when it comes to conspiracy theories, but a new study led by Professor Peter Knight from The University of Manchester warns that a widespread sense of political powerlessness is creating fertile ground for conspiratorial beliefs. The study forms part of a series of eight country studies within the Horizon Europe research project TaCT-FoRSED, coordinated by the University of Passau, Germany. The University of Manchester is one of the partner universities across Europe involved in the project.
The research finds that while only a small proportion of people strongly believe in multiple conspiracy theories, almost half of Britons find at least one plausible. The researchers argue that this “susceptible middle” is particularly important in understanding how conspiracy theories can gain traction in mainstream politics.
Key findings
- Almost half of Britons are open to conspiracy theories: 49% find at least one conspiracy theory plausible, despite just 2% rating two or more as “very plausible”.
- Many people feel politically powerless: 68.3% say the political system gives people like them little or no influence, while only 15.5% feel very or completely confident about taking part in politics.
- The electoral system can fuel distrust: First-past-the-post limited Reform UK to five seats in the 2024 general election despite winning 14.3% of the vote, potentially reinforcing claims that the system is “rigged”.
- The media landscape is changing: Three companies control around 90% of national newspaper circulation, while younger people increasingly get their news through social media.
- Democratic safeguards remain important: The BBC’s wide reach, university education, fact-checking organisations and a long-standing parliamentary taboo around conspiracy theories help counter their spread.
Conspiracy theories are gaining ground
The study examines an apparent contradiction - despite relatively low levels of conspiracy belief by European standards, conspiratorial ideas are increasingly visible in British political debate.
According to the European Social Survey, 25.5% of UK respondents agreed that “a small secret group of people is responsible for making all major decisions in world politics”, compared with a European average of 32.9%.
Yet conspiracy theories have increasingly entered mainstream political discussion. In 2023, Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen was expelled from the party after comparing COVID-19 vaccines to the Holocaust. The following year, then Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt commissioned guidance to help MPs recognise conspiracy theories.
The researchers suggest that the distinction between a small group of committed believers and a much larger group willing to entertain individual conspiracy theories is crucial. While most people may not identify as conspiracy theorists, they can still be receptive to narratives that portray political institutions as corrupt, secretive or working against ordinary citizens.
“On average, Britain looks reassuringly sceptical - but averages hide the real story,” said Professor Peter Knight. “Most Britons aren’t conspiracy theorists, yet around half are willing to entertain at least one conspiracy theory – and that is the audience conspiracy entrepreneurs are now reaching.”
“When most people feel the system doesn’t listen to them, claims that it is rigged start to sound plausible. That is less a problem of individual gullibility than of how our democracy is designed.”
The role of politics and the media
The study also examines how Britain’s political and media institutions can influence the spread of conspiracy theories. The first-past-the-post electoral system can limit the parliamentary representation of parties that receive substantial vote shares, potentially feeding perceptions that the system does not reflect voters’ wishes. Meanwhile, the concentration of national newspaper ownership sits alongside a shift towards social media as a news source, particularly among younger people.
However, the researchers identify important counterweights to conspiratorial thinking. These include the Supreme Court’s 2019 ruling on the prorogation of Parliament, the BBC’s weekly reach of around 90% of adults, high levels of university education and an active fact-checking sector.
Tackling political powerlessness
The findings suggest that tackling conspiracy theories requires more than teaching people to recognise misinformation. The researchers argue that citizenship education, which only 42% of teachers say their schools provide, should be strengthened alongside efforts to give people a greater sense of influence over political decisions and support a healthy, diverse media environment.
The study brings together existing evidence from population surveys, international democracy indices, polling, and historical and media research. It forms part of TaCT-FoRSED, a European research project examining how democracies can build resilience to conspiracy theories by strengthening political self efficacy – people’s sense that they can influence the political system.
Funding statement
The European Union is funding the project over a period of three years as part of the Horizon Europe programme (funding agreement 101178926 in the call "Past, present and future of democracies; HORIZON CL2-2024-DEMOCRACY-01").
Funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Executive Agency (REA). Neither the European Union nor the REA can be held responsible for them.
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